NBA Playoff Matchups: 1 Series That Will Decide Everything

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Phoenix Suns: Edwards’ Proving Ground

Double Teams and Game Plans: Can Edwards Handle the Pressure?

The NBA playoffs are so often determined by individual matchups. Superstar vs. superstar, player vs. scheme, coaching style vs. coaching style. It all ultimately leads to glorious victory or devastating defeat for the whole organization, but the path to both destinations is littered with individual victories and losses. Talent matters, of course, but after a certain point, everybody left in the postseason field is talented; the series is then determined by those individual battles. Take the first round as an example. The Minnesota Timberwolves took down the Los Angeles Lakers in five games in part because Anthony Edwards solved a confusing defensive scheme from JJ Redick. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown went toe-to-toe with Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner to move onto the second round. Steve Kerr managed to outmaneuver Ime Udoka’s excellent defensive design to get the Golden State Warriors past the Houston Rockets. The second round promises more of the same. Here are the matchups that will determine every series as the NBA postseason enters conference semifinals play.

Throughout this NBA season Edwards has been forced to deal with the special treatment all great scorers get from opposing defenses—a healthy dosage of double teams and swarming coverages. He didn’t adjust well initially and even went so far as to complain that he doesn’t want to pass the ball all the time earlier in the year. But the superstar has slowly adjusted, and his growth was on full display in the Timberwolves’ dominant first-round series win over the Los Angeles Lakers. Without a top-tier wing defender to throw at Edwards, Redick installed a variety of coverages to prevent Minnesota’s star from catching any sort of rhythm—with the one common factor being Edwards nearly always had two defenders right in his grill. Los Angeles swarmed him every single time he touched the ball and was more than willing to live with the Wolves regularly attacking four-on-five as a result.

The Lakers accomplished their primary goal. Edwards exploded in only one game, a 43-point romp in Game 4, but otherwise was held to inefficient shooting numbers and fairly limited scoring output. The problem that led to L.A.’s elimination, however, was that the rest of the Timberwolves stepped up in a huge way. The supporting cast, led by Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, and Karl-Anthony Towns, were able to consistently punish the Lakers for their over-commitment to stopping Edwards.

The Suns, on the other hand, have a much more versatile defense. Chris Paul is a master manipulator, Kevin Durant is an elite wing defender, and Deandre Ayton can protect the rim effectively. They’re not going to give Edwards the same kind of one-on-one attention that the Lakers did, but they’ll likely use a combination of switches, double teams, and physicality to make his life difficult. How Edwards responds to this pressure will be a key factor in determining the outcome of the series.

Suns’ Big Three vs. Timberwolves’ Supporting Cast

The Suns boast a formidable trio in Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Chris Paul. They’re a walking bucket, capable of scoring from anywhere on the floor and dismantling defenses with their individual brilliance. The Timberwolves, meanwhile, rely on a more balanced attack, with Anthony Edwards leading the charge but also getting significant contributions from Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, and Karl-Anthony Towns.

This disparity in offensive firepower creates a significant challenge for Minnesota. The Suns can simply outscore opponents with their star power, making it difficult for the Timberwolves to keep pace. The Suns’ offensive versatility is a major concern for Minnesota. Booker can create his own shot, Durant can score from anywhere, and Paul is a master facilitator. This makes it difficult to find a consistent defensive strategy against Phoenix. Minnesota will need to rely on their ability to force turnovers and get out in transition to stay close.

The Timberwolves’ role players will need to step up and make shots. Gobert’s interior presence and McDaniels’ defensive versatility are crucial. Towns, when healthy, is a potent offensive weapon who can stretch the floor and create scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates. But they’ll need to be more consistent than they were in the first round, where they relied heavily on Edwards’ scoring.

The Suns’ biggest weakness might be their lack of depth. If their starting lineup gets into foul trouble or struggles, they can be vulnerable. The Timberwolves need to exploit this weakness by playing physical and aggressive, forcing the Suns to rely on their bench players.

Will Minnesota’s Pace Be Enough?

The Timberwolves are built for speed. They love to push the pace in transition and create scoring opportunities off of turnovers. Edwards is a dynamic finisher in the open court, and Gobert’s athleticism allows him to run the floor effectively. This fast-paced style of play has been successful for Minnesota in the regular season, but it’s unclear if it will be effective against a more methodical Suns team

The Suns, on the other hand, are known for their patient offense and their ability to control the tempo of the game. They’re not going to get caught up in a race with the Timberwolves. They’ll slow things down, make Minnesota work on defense, and try to wear them down. This could be a major problem for the Timberwolves, who are not as experienced at playing in a slower-paced game.

Phoenix’s ability to transition defensively is also a major factor. They have elite defenders who can quickly get back on their feet and contain the Timberwolves’ fast break.

The key for Minnesota will be to find a balance between their preferred pace and the Suns’ style of play. They need to push the tempo when they can, but they also need to be willing to slow things down and grind out possessions. If they can do that, they have a chance to win this series. But if they get bogged down in a half-court game with the Suns, they will likely struggle.