What to Expect for 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season? – A Comprehensive Forecast
The Atlantic hurricane season is just around the corner, and with each new season comes the potential for devastating storms. In this comprehensive forecast, we will delve into the latest predictions from NOAA, examine the factors that affect hurricane development, and identify specific regions at risk for landfall.
NOAA Predictions for 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season
- NOAA predicts a near-normal season, with a 40% chance of that happening.
- Above-normal season has a 30% chance, while a below-normal season also has a 30% chance.
- NOAA forecasts a range of 12 to 17 total named storms that could develop in the Atlantic area.
- Out of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes if the right conditions exist.
- 1 to 4 of those hurricanes are anticipated to be major hurricanes.
- The predictions have a 70% level of confidence.
Factors Affecting Hurricane Development
Hurricane development is driven by a number of factors, including:
- Sea surface temperatures
- African easterly waves
- West African monsoon
- Tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea
- Natural long-term variability in atmospheric and oceanic conditions
- Potential influence of El Nino or La Nina
African Easterly Waves and West African Monsoon
The African easterly waves and West African monsoon are conducive factors to hurricane development. The former tends to produce stronger and longer-lived storms in the Atlantic area, while the latter keywords can provide more energy to fuel storm development.
Potential Influence of El Nino and La Nina
The influence of El Nino or La Nina can significantly impact hurricane development. El Nino’s presence in the area can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, while La Nina tends to produce more active hurricane seasons.
Specific Regions at Risk for Landfall
The following hot spots along the US coast have a higher than average chance of being directly impacted this hurricane season:
Florida East Coast Storm
The area highlighted below has a higher than average chance of experiencing a landfalling tropical system:
Florida West Coast Storm
This weather pattern poses a threat for the Florida panhandle and west coast. The system may impact the Carolina coast as well.
Carolina Coast Storm
This area has seen a potent low-pressure system pushing through the coastal waters of the mid-Atlantic, increasing the chances of an impactful storm.
The patterns suggest that tropical storm activity could be observed impacting South Texas.
The patterns also suggest that a sneaky system could make landfall in the Mid-Atlantic region.
While no one can predict the precise path and impact of a hurricane, there are many factors that can help forecasters anticipate its likely trajectory and severity. With the information compiled in this forecast, you can take precautions to minimize your risks and prepare yourself to weather any storm.
What is NOAA?
NOAA is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a division of the National Weather Service. NOAA provides crucial investments in scientific and technological advancements in hurricane modeling, resulting in more accurate forecasts and better community readiness.
What are the factors that influence hurricane development?
Factors that contribute to hurricane development include African easterly waves, West African monsoon, sea surface temperatures, and natural variability in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. The presence of El Nino or La Nina can also impact hurricane activity in the Atlantic area.
What are the specific regions at risk for landfall?
The Florida east and west coasts, Carolina coast, South Texas, and Mid-Atlantic regions are all at a higher risk of experiencing landfalling tropical systems, according to latest weather patterns.
How have recent hurricanes affected Atlantic hurricane predictions?
Recent hurricane seasons have seen varying levels of activity, but they have often been marked by above-normal levels of activity. However, competing factors from natural variability may mitigate or augment that activity in the upcoming season.
What steps can I take to minimize my risk from a hurricane?
When hurricane season approaches, it is important to follow local news and weather reports, take advantage of emergency management resources and shelters, make preparation plans, and assemble emergency kits well ahead of the hurricane’s expected landfall.