BOX OFFICE SHOCKER: MLK Weekend’s $50M Question Gets a Jolt!
As the nation reflects on the life and legacy of Martin Luther King Jr. during this solemn holiday weekend, Hollywood’s box office is gearing up for a thrilling showdown. The question on everyone’s mind: which movie will reign supreme and claim the coveted top spot? The answer came in the form of a beastly surprise – Universal’s ‘The Wolf Man’ has unleashed its fury, raking in a staggering $1.4 million in Thursday night previews.
But don’t count out the competition just yet! New Line’s ‘One of Them Days’ is hot on its heels, trying to make its mark on the MLK box office landscape. With a star-studded cast and an intriguing premise, this drama has the potential to dethrone the werewolf at the top of the charts.
Box Office Bummer: MLK Weekend Falls Flat
The MLK weekend is typically a busy time at the box office, with many movies opening to strong crowds and big box office numbers. However, this year’s MLK weekend is shaping up to be a bit of a disappointment. According to early estimates, the number one movie at the box office this weekend is Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King, which is looking to upset the MLK 4-day frame with an estimated $16M take in its fifth weekend.
This is easily the lowest post-Covid No. 1 haul for a movie, and it’s not exactly the kind of news the industry wants to hear. Two newcomers, Sony’s One of Them Days and Blumhouse/Universal’s Wolf Man, are also struggling to attract audiences, with estimated 4-day takes of $13M and $12M, respectively.
Both movies are low-cost, with budgets of $14M and $25M, respectively, before P&A spend. While this may be good news for the studios, it’s not exactly a recipe for success. The current $11.7M 3-day on last year’s Blumhouse January title Night Swim is bigger than Wolf Man’s, which suggests that audiences may be losing interest in the horror genre.
The box office’s struggles are a major concern for the industry, which has been relying on superhero movies and big franchises to carry the load. With the lack of a clear No. 1 movie at the box office, it’s unclear what the future holds for the industry.
The Disappointing MLK Weekend Box Office
Lowest Post-Covid Opening
Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King is looking to upset the MLK 4-day frame with an estimated $16M take in its fifth weekend. This is easily the lowest post-Covid No. 1 haul for a movie, and it’s a sign that the industry may be facing some tough times ahead.
The $16M take is also a significant drop from the estimated $33M that the No. 1 movie at the box office typically makes during the MLK weekend. This is a concerning trend, especially considering that the box office has been struggling to recover from the pandemic.
The fact that two newcomers, Sony’s One of Them Days and Blumhouse/Universal’s Wolf Man, are also struggling to attract audiences only adds to the concerns. Both movies are low-cost, with budgets of $14M and $25M, respectively, before P&A spend, but they’re not generating enough buzz to make a significant impact at the box office.
This is a major concern for the industry, which has been relying on superhero movies and big franchises to carry the load. With the lack of a clear No. 1 movie at the box office, it’s unclear what the future holds for the industry.
The Contenders: One of Them Days and Wolf Man
One of Them Days: A Comedic Underdog
Sony’s One of Them Days is a comedy movie that’s hoping to find an audience, particularly with its strong cast activation component on social media. The movie has a social media universe across TikTok, Facebook, X, YouTube, and Instagram, which stands at 116.6M, a +2% increase versus comedy norms.
The cast activation component on the R-rated movie is strong, with SZA’s social network at 36M and Keke Palmer’s at 24.5M. Reports from social media analytics firm RelishMix suggest that positive-leaning conversation on One of Them Days is strong from audiences gearing up for a fun comedic time at the movies.
The cast, particularly Keke Palmer, is enticing many towards the film, with comments like, “This is already a must see. KEKE and Sza and Katt Williams lol yes,” and, “Keke low-key one of the best comedic actresses out now.” Audiences feel this is similar to other black-led comedies, with comments like, “This has Friday vibes all over it. Can’t wait to see it,” and, “It’s giving Insecure vibes but as a movie.”
One of Them Days is a low-cost movie, with a budget of $14M before P&A spend. While this may be good news for the studio, it’s not exactly a recipe for success. The movie needs to generate enough buzz to attract audiences, and with the lack of a clear No. 1 movie at the box office, it’s unclear what the future holds for the industry.
The Contenders: One of Them Days and Wolf Man
Wolf Man: A Horror Flop
Blumhouse/Universal’s Wolf Man is a horror movie that’s struggling to attract audiences. The movie has a social media universe reach of 136.5M, which is running close to 50% behind the average norm for a wide horror release.
The movie’s biggest social media star is Julia Garner, with an audience of 1.5M on Instagram. However, social media analytics firm RelishMix noticed that bad word-of-mouth is a major concern for the movie. Mixed negative-leaning chatter on Wolf Man finds some viewers taking umbrage with the look of the film, from the cinematography to the design of the titular creature.
Comments include, “They’ve clearly gone for a more human-like werewolf design, which I get is not a lot of people’s preference,” and, “A furless werewolf is not a werewolf in my books!” This is a major concern for the movie, as bad word-of-mouth can be a major turn-off for audiences.
Wolf Man is a low-cost movie, with a budget of $25M before P&A spend. While this may be good news for the studio, it’s not exactly a recipe for success. The movie needs to generate enough buzz to attract audiences, and with the lack of a clear No. 1 movie at the box office, it’s unclear what the future holds for the industry.
Box Office Analysis and Implications
Post-Covid Trends
The No. 1 movie at the box office during the MLK weekend has typically done north of $33M over four days. This year, neither One of Them Days nor Wolf Man is expected to meet this benchmark.
This is a concerning trend, especially considering that the box office has been struggling to recover from the pandemic. The lack of a clear No. 1 movie at the box office raises concerns about the industry’s overall performance, particularly with low-cost movies struggling to attract audiences.
The industry needs to find new ways to attract audiences and drive revenue. This may involve experimenting with new marketing strategies, releasing more niche or independent films, or even exploring new distribution methods.
The industry’s struggles are a major concern for investors, studios, and even consumers. With the lack of a clear No. 1 movie at the box office, it’s unclear what the future holds for the industry.
The Future of the Box Office
Nosferatu: A Rare Bright Spot
Focus Features’ Nosferatu is a rare bright spot in an otherwise dull weekend. The movie is heading for a $90.2M cume, $6.6M shy of overtaking Downton Abbey as the label’s highest-grossing movie ever.
The Robert Eggers-directed movie is the second-biggest stateside for the Universal specialty label. This is a major achievement, especially considering that the movie has been released in a crowded market.
Nosferatu is a testament to the power of independent films and the importance of creative storytelling. The movie’s success is a reminder that there’s still a place for niche or independent films in the modern movie landscape.
The industry needs to take note of Nosferatu’s success and explore new ways to promote and distribute niche or independent films. This may involve experimenting with new marketing strategies, releasing more films through streaming platforms, or even exploring new distribution methods.
Conclusion
As the weekend box office numbers continue to roll in, it’s clear that Martin Luther King Jr. Day has brought more than just a day of rest for the nation. The highly anticipated film, ‘The Wolf Man’, has taken the top spot with a whopping $1.4 million in previews, leaving ‘One of Them Days’ in its wake. But what does this mean for the future of the film industry, particularly on this pivotal holiday weekend?
The significance of this weekend’s box office cannot be overstated. With a combined total of over $3.5 million, it’s clear that the film industry is still heavily invested in using MLK Day as a prime weekend for releases. But what does this say about the state of diversity and representation in these films? With the release of ‘One of Them Days’, a film centered around the African American experience, there’s a glimmer of hope that the industry is starting to take steps towards more inclusive storytelling. However, the disparity in box office numbers raises questions about the effectiveness of these efforts.